Kerry Predicts 'Ice-Free Arctic' in 5-10 Years

Speaking at a town hall-style meeting promoting climate change legislation on Thursday, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) predicted there will be “an ice-free Arctic” in "five or 10 years."

“The arctic ice is disappearing faster than was predicted,” Kerry said. “And instead of waiting until 2030 or whenever it was to have an ice-free Arctic, we’re going to have one in five or 10 years.”

However, the Web site of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says: “Using the observed 2007/2008 summer sea ice extents as a starting point, computer models predict that the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summertime within 30 years.”

NOAA cites as its source on Arctic sea ice a study published in the April 3, 2009 edition of Geophysical Research Letters by J.E. Overland and Muyin Wang. (Overland works for NOAA at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Wang is at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, in Seattle.)

In their study, Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.

Muyin Wang told CNSNews.com that she and her colleague analyzed the six models, which generated earlier and later estimates of an ice-free Arctic sea in summer months, and the median was the year 2037.  The amount of ice in the Arctic sea fluctuates throughout the year – more in winter, less in summer – and Wang said there would always be ice in the Arctic sea during the winter months.

When asked about Kerry’s statement that the Arctic sea would be ice-free in five to 10 years, Wang said that time-range is an extreme case scenario.

“That’s the extreme case,” Wang said.  “To me, that could be, but it’s less than a 50 percent chance.” Read more...