If Santorum Wins Michigan, All Bets Are Off for Romney

If Santorum wins Michigan, all bets are off for Romney

By Juan Williams

Published February 16, 2012 | FoxNews.com

On the GOP primary calendar, Michigan ranked as a slam dunk for Mitt Romney – until now.

Suddenly all eyes in the political world are fixed on the fascinating, fast-changing forces at work in Michigan ahead of the state's Republican presidential primary on February 28.

New polling shows that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum can beat Romney in Michigan -- the state where Romney was born and his father, George Romney, served three terms as governor.

Michigan also was one of the few states where Romney won in the 2008 primaries against John McCain. He won by nine points. Now, three years later, a new poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Santorum leading Romney by 15 points in Michigan (39 to 24). Another state poll from the American Research Group also found Santorum leading with 33 percent, Romney in second with 27 percent and Newt Gingrich in third with 21 percent.

This movement toward Santorum in Michigan tracks with movement in the national polls of Republicans. A CBS/New York Times poll has Santorum leading Romney, 30 percent to 27 percent. If Santorum edges out Mitt Romney in Michigan, all bets are off in the GOP contest. Remember that while Santorum has won just as many states as Romney, it is Romney who leads in the critical delegate count. A Santorum victory in Michigan, however, will give the former senator all the momentum he needs to counter Romney’s advantage in campaign money and staff and claim the bonanza of delegates at stake in the Super Tuesday primaries.

If that scenario plays out it will be hard to revive Romney’s political life.

In many ways Michigan is a microcosm for the whole country in this election. The economy has been the defining political issue there. The unemployment rate in Michigan is 9.3 percent, one full point above the national average of 8.3 percent. According to “RealtyTrac,” Michigan ranked sixth out of the fifty states last year for the highest home foreclosure rate. In Wayne Country, where Detroit is located, one out of every 231 homes is being foreclosed.